While economic predictions are beginning to point towards a double-dip recession, with negative news swirling around housing, labor and consumer confidence, the Obama administration is more focused on the green jobs of tomorrow than the pain of today.
In a recent visit to a plant in North Carolina the President touted the 750 jobs created by the company from stimulus funding. Had Mr. Obama’s staff done their homework the President would never have been touting stimulus jobs at a company that created half of those jobs in China. Thank you American taxpayers for creating hundreds of jobs in China! Aren’t we swell?
While in North Carolina the President told us we need to be patient saying, “The sky is not falling.” What he doesn’t understand is that for those faced with foreclosure, an ever-growing percent of the public, the sky has already fallen.
Today Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist and author of a study on the housing collapse, said that the U.S. housing collapse is now worse than during the Great Depression. He went on to indicate that the market likely will continue to fall another 3% for the rest of the year before hitting bottom and going stagnant.
In an interview with Foxnews.com Dales said, “Even when that happens, I don’t think we’re going to see any significant or sustained rises,” predicting “a couple years of pretty much no recovery whatsoever.”
When the car industry began to collapse more than a million jobs were at risk with an additional 3 million jobs seriously threatened. Housing effects everyone, not only the more than 37 million people directly involved in the construction, materials and sales areas, but those who’s primary asset is their home. Since the housing market began to dip, prices have fallen more than 33%, nearly 2% more than during the Great Depression.
Many believed the housing market had hit bottom during 2010, however Dales told Foxnews.com that, “The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression.” Dales said the collapse has eclipsed that of the Great Depression because the boom that preceded it was much bigger. Unlike during the 1920s, access to the housing market was far more open leading up to 2006. “This boom was characterized by homeownership becoming the norm for pretty much anyone,” Dales said, noting that the boom has effectively been thrown in reverse.
Till 6 weeks ago financial markets had been showing promise, but recent increases in unemployment, the economic collapses in Europe, and lowered predicted economic growth at home has Wall Street pulling back sharply. If, as predicted by a number of economists, we’re in a double-dip in housing, much like in the 2009 the entire economy will be pulled down.
The loss in home value means that most home owners have lost all growth in equity since 2002; 9 years wiped out in the blink of an eye. Many Baby-boomers were counting on selling off their home in retirement which represents a major portion of their retirement savings, without which many will be forced to delay retirement many years.
Even casting aside Dales prediction, today the National Association of Home Builders’ released its monthly Housing Market Index, which measures builder sentiment on the market, indicating a 3 point drop from the previous month and the lowest level since September 2010. The index was at 13 out of 100, where any number below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the market.
While Mr. Obama would prefer if we didn’t scream and run around in panic, he doesn’t seem to understand the true depth of the crisis facing the country. More importantly he clearly has no answers as he, “Wins the future.” Until the housing market stabilizes every sector of the economy will be negatively effected. Stopping foreclosures, helping people renegotiate their loans and, God forbid, having Fannie Mae buy up failing mortgages will do nothing to prop up housing.
Sometimes it’s better to allow the system to cleanse itself, painfully, but quickly. Efforts to help a few often penalize everyone and the housing market is a good example.
There is only one solution to the housing problem and that is to bring more buyers to the table than sellers. This means building confidence in the consumer and that goes hand-in-hand with confidence in the business community; both concepts lost on Mr. Obama.
Building roads is great; we need them. Windmills are nice, but 10 million windmills won’t turn around the economy. Electric vehicles may be the wave of the future and solar cells may mean less dependence on petroleum for our kids. In the meantime Mr. Obama should be sitting down with the businesses on Main Street, not GE, not Ford, not Boeing and certainly not Bank of America. Ask those who run the Mom & Pop businesses of America, and not just those that donate to his campaign, what the government can do to unleash the world’s greatest economy. Seems like a simple proposition, but it will never happen. In Washington your voice is only as loud as your wallet is thick.
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