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Palin out, but was she ever in?

Today’s biggest non-news was that Sarah Palin would not seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012. Anyone who couldn’t see this coming a mile away must be legally blind. Palin is in a position most politicians would give their right leg to have: king-maker and media superstar. Her books soar to the top of the New York Times and Amazon best sellers list before they are even released. She gets dozens of requests for appearances every week and has a lucrative deal with Fox News as a commentator/contributor. Add in reality show star and you need to ask yourself, why would you want to let all this go to become president?

Don’t misread the tea leaves; pun intended. Palin hasn’t lost the desire to become the leader of the free world; just not right now. Imagine the war chest she will have amassed by 2016. Arguably Palin was one of the poorest governors in the U.S., highly dependent upon income produced by her husband; not anymore. Unless Palin suddenly falls out of favor with the public she will certainly be among the wealthiest women in America by 2016. If she ran in 2012 she risked everything; failing to receive the nomination would mean that her popularity and power would suddenly evaporate. How many 2008 GOP presidential candidates can you name? If you’re astute you might be able to name 3 or 4. Which of those do you think have people waiting in lines to pre-order their books?

Sarah Palin broke the news to conservative talk show host Mark Levin and in a letter to her supporters.

“My decision is based upon a review of what common sense conservatives and independents have accomplished, especially over the last year. I believe that at this time I can be more effective in a decisive role to help elect other true public servants to office – from the nation’s governors to congressional seats and the presidency.”

The only folks shocked by Palin’s announcement were her supporters. Most in the press had predicted Palin would not seek the nomination and the lateness of her decision became more of a ho-hum moment than news. Despite the lack of astonishment, it was received with a great sigh by the left-wing media. Broadcast networks and cable news outlets MSNBC and CNN pundits were left crying at the altar; even though they all suspected Palin wouldn’t join the fray, a Palin nomination was their dream scenario.

There were never any real signs that Sarah would run, but she kept enough doubt in the air to keep her in high demand and to assure the media would carefully parse her words. Palin made very little effort to build a campaign organization and her political action committee SarahPac concentrated on electing other conservatives, never taking any steps towards building widespread fundraising for a presidential campaign. While the SarahPac One Nation bus tour fueled speculation, the other missing components assured “those in the know” that she wasn’t seriously interested in a nomination run.

One would have to surmise that Palin made her decision long ago but was smart enough to delay final word as long as possible; it was a brilliant strategy that likely garnered millions for SarahPac and may make significant impact on congressional elections next year. Most importantly, Sarah will have hundreds of favors to call in should she decide to make a run in 2016. This ain’t no dumb lady.

Palin, in the interview with Levin, also said she would not mount a third-party bid, as some of her supporters have suggested, opining that a third party campaign would assure Obama’s re-election.

Palin has successfully made the transition from media whipping-gal to king maker guarantying she’ll be a player in the U.S. political scene for many years to come.

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