It’s pitiful how quick politicians jump up to announce that in March the private sector added 230,000 jobs, but they go into hiding when the numbers are bad. Putting aside the fantasy numbers, let’s get down to brass tacks. Of the 230,000 new jobs, nearly a third were in government subsidized health care and social services and temporary business services. The real number of non-subsidized jobs was only 157,000. The true numbers show a snails-pace of job growth. At the local level, 157,000 jobs only comes out to 50 jobs per county, while the average number of job seekers during the same period was 5,000. Reducing unemployment means the creation of 360,000 jobs per month, something the economy shows no signs are on the horizon.
When an economy starts to recover temporary jobs are the first to surface. After 21 months of expansion the creation of permanent jobs should be far better than we’ve seen to this point.
If you’re to buy the conventional definition of recovery, the U.S. economy began to grow in mid-2009. Since then GDP growth has averaged a pathetic 2.9%. Economists universally agree that if the stimulus was effective we’d have seen at least a 4% growth rate. At 2.9% it shows the economy is still quite ill.
While consumer spending has shown a respectable level of demand, much of that demand if not fueling the U.S. economy and is finding its way to China. Add in the effects of $4.00+ per gallon for gasoline and the challenges to continued growth doesn’t bode well for continued growth.
The President is going to offer up a budget (his second of the year,) that will go back on his promise not to increase income taxes on anyone for two years. The effect of raising taxes on the job creators may just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Out-of-control federal spending, a debt crisis at our doorstep and an apparent unwillingness of Liberals to attack the primary debt drives: Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, isn’t creating a lot of smiles on Wall Street.
The Obama administration has taken a green-at-all-costs approach to energy regulations, further cutting the legs out from under the economy. While the President preaches American energy independence, his policies are pushing up the cost of driving and making the United States even more dependent on imported oil and indebted to China. It’s like a merry-go-round. If we don’t get off this endless loop and concentrate on what’s best for American business and our economy, we’ll slowly spiral down under the weight of our own debt load. Perhaps this is what is giving Donald Trump a bump up in the polls. Time may have come to see that a businessman is in the White House.
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