News hit the wires this week that Sarah Palin was about to hit the road again in a very campaign-ish bus tour starting this weekend at Rolling Thunder in the nation’s capital.  That coupled with her pronouncement on Greta Van Susteren’s On the Record program on Fox News this week that ‘I do have the fire in my belly,’ would lead many to believe that Ms. Palin is contemplating a run for the Republican nomination for President in 2012.  Is she or isn’t she?

Dubbed “The One Nation Tour,” it rings strangely of Barack Obama’s theme of no red states, no blue states, just the United States; all things that point to the 2008 vice presidential candidate ramping up a campaign.

When I wrote about the need for charisma to challenge Barack Obama in 2012, Sarah Palin immediately came to mind.  Palin has charisma aplenty, but she also has some serious issues with communication when not following a speech.  It’s not that Ms. Palin is not an intelligent woman.  Far from it.  She’s an exceptionally bright woman who comes off rather badly when unscripted.  Palin is not alone in that weakness when unscripted.  Obama’s need for the teleprompter has been fodder for the late-night comedians and political pundits since the 2008 campaign.  Clearly Obama’s best moments of the 2008 election were tightly scripted; when off script he had a propensity to place both feet firmly in his mouth and his handlers now have him chained to a teleprompter.  Remember the “Joe the plumber,” moment?  And of course the famous comments about conservatives clinging to their guns and bibles. 

Obama has a tendency to allow his true nature to slip out when he speaks untethered while Palin seems unfocused or confused.  Sarah’s casual Alaskan style appears to drift from folksy to uninformed when in fact it’s her communication skills and not her intellect that’s wanting.  How would this play in a debate?  Palin’s grasp of foreign affairs is much stronger than it was 3 years ago, but her verbal skills don’t appear to have matured and perhaps they never will.  You can be on the right side of every issue and if you can’t convey that, or you can be made to appear uninformed, the media will paint you as a baffoon.

Should Sarah choose to run, you can expect the left wing media to drag up every unfortunate experience she had with the press.  The infamous Katie Couric interview from the 2008 campaign will run thousands of times.  Attacks will be thrown at her from every liberal media outlet targeting both her and her family and the nation will be forced to endure the mindless self-promotion of Levi Johnston.  How long will it take for someone on Obama’s team to toss out the “lipstick on a pig” comment?

A full-length documentary on Ms. Palin will hit the theaters this summer providing another strong indicator of a presidential run.  The documentary was produced by a conservative filmmaker and will be showing in the critical states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.  Could this be coincidence or a grand scheme to encourage an all-out draft Palin movement to save the Republicans from their lackluster field?

Palin purchased a new home in Scottsdale, Arizona giving her a base much more convenient to a national campaign than the far reaches of her home state.

Putting on my analytical hat, I’d say everything we’ve seen or heard is part of a future plan unrelated to Obama.  I believe that the only way she enters the campaign is if the calls for her to run are so great that to say no might mean the end of any future life in politics.  She’s too smart to jump into the fray without believing she has a better than 50/50 chance to secure the nomination and beat Obama; she simply has too much to lose.  Another four years of strengthening her public presence and honing her communication skills would make her the preemptive favorite for 2016 and Palin is a young woman.  In 2016 Sarah Palin will only be 52 years-old, quite young by presidential standards.

Consider where Sarah Palin is today.  She’s the single most influential woman in politics without being “in politics.”  She’s a media star by any measure.  She can name her price for any public speaking opportunity.  Any book she writes is a best seller before the first drop of ink hits the page.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big Sarah Palin fan, I just don’t see a run in 2012. It’s too soon after the media assault of 2008 and   there’s simply too many worlds yet for her to conquer that weren’t available to her the last time.  She has plenty of time to find her way into the Oval Office and she can sit back, build up political favors, fill her bank accounts and watch the Republican field battle it out.

Of course, I’m only right about 50% of the time. If I’m wrong I’ll support her without reservation because the imposter in chief, much like Mubarak, must go. Just please, Sarah I beg you to hire someone to help you with your unscripted speech cause I believe you have things to say America needs to hear and understand.

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